Intressant att läsa om Afghanistan

Det råder ingen tvekan om vilken storpolitisk världshändelse som är hetast just nu: talibanerna tar över Afghanistan. Snabbt går det dessutom, skräcken sprider sig, omvärlden ser på men gör absolut ingenting. Fast jag vet förstås inte vad man borde göra ...

Min vän Dennis Jett, f d ambassadör för USA i flera länder, numera professor i International Affairs vid State University of Pennsylvania, skriver (o)regelbundet om sådant om skakar om oss, eller som åtminstone borde göra det. Här har du hans senaste alster, om Afghanistan. Texten är lite längre än de jag brukar ha här på bloggen. Det tar dig ett par minuter att läsa, men det är värt det!

STOP THE WHINING – AFGHANISTAN WAS ALWAYS UNWINNABLE

 

Of the many painful things associated with the debacle unfolding in Afghanistan, there is at least one that is controllable. We can stop listening to the armchair field marshals and retired military officers who are now telling us how we could have won.

Afghanistan was never winnable for several reasons. First of all, it is not a country. Sure, there exists on the map an area with borders that bears that name, but that does not make it a nation. Being a real country requires most of the people in it to identify first and foremost as citizens of that country. Afghanistan is a collection of warring tribes, clans, and religious sects all of which are more important to their members than being Afghans.

Second, it is a narco-state that is the world’s largest producer of heroin. When your economy is based on crime, there is little chance of having a government that can effectively govern. Third, look at the map. If you had to pick a collection of countries that would be the least helpful neighbors, you could not do better than the ones surrounding Afghanistan. Vietnam demonstrated the impact on the chances of prevailing in a conflict when external sanctuaries and supply routes are just across the border. 

Pakistan has been a particularly unhelpful neighbor in part because of its competition with India and its inability or unwillingness to control its own territory. And it has provided a haven to more than just Osama Bin Laden. Then there is Iran and China and several Stans, all of whom care more about their influence and access to resources than they do about peace.

Fourth, if it is one thing that Vietnam should have taught us it is that when your local partner is corrupt, incompetent, and does not enjoy or care about having the support of its own people, then you have picked the losing side.  

The only real winner in this sorry situation was our military-industrial complex. How many billions of dollars have been spent on trying to build a high-tech military capability in a country where only 38 percent of the people can read?

But none of this will stop the think tank generals with no military experience and the retired generals who think there is a kinetic solution for every problem from telling us they could have won if their strategy had been adopted. They had twenty years and hundreds of billions of dollars to come up with a way to win. It didn’t happen because given the situation it could never happen. So a little humility and less hubris on their part would be in order.

-Dennis Jett